An opinion piece in today’s Times & Transcript reminds us of the angst and flurry of activities surrounding the “swine flu”or H1N1 epidemic of 2009. As the opening paragraph notes, we were told to:
Keep the kids home from school – better yet, close all the schools – avoid public places, wear a mask and rubber gloves, keep away from Mexicans, throw out the pork chops, try not to breathe.
This news item also reminds us of the role of epidemiologists during potential and actual outbreaks of infectious diseases (i.e., PHiA: public health in action). Health care providers are required to report cases of specific infectious diseases to local and other levels of surveillance teams. Using epidemiological methods and epidemiologists (and other public health experts), these teams analyze and reports on outbreak trends. They compare incidence rates with past trends and help health care providers and government officials decide on the most appropriate actions for protecting the public against the spread of the disease.
As the article noted, in this case the actual spread of the flu and the associated death rates did not continue on the initial trajectory, which caused many folks to wonder about the validity of the response decisions.
Public health, government and health care officials often have to grapple with the challenge of whether it is better to be “too” prepared when an outbreak is not as bad a predicted or not adequately prepared to save current resources. Not an easy choice.
